Make or break – what will become of Cheltenham hero Constitution Hill in March

The biggest name in horse racing, Constitution Hill. The 2022 Supreme and 2023 Champion hurdle winner has risen to media stardom for Owner Michael Buckley and Seven Barrows trainer Nicky Henderson.

However, his recent exploits are producing a divide in the racing world. Once a slick jumper of his obstacles, he has now fallen on three of his last four starts. The possibility of another run over hurdles, has been met with heavy criticism, with suggestion’s the horse is being put at risk.

Despite these claims Henderson and Jockey Nico De Boinville reassure fan’s the horse is schooling brilliantly at home and they have no doubts he retains his ability shown in years previous. However, that is yet to be consistently proven on the track since his return from a near fatal injury in 2024.

Seven Barrows trainer Henderson has potentially pinpointed the new look and ‘safer’ hurdles as a reason for his star’s problems. This claim isn’t backed up by the data with the new padded hurdles seeing an 11% reduction in the risk of a horse falling.

So what happens next for Constitution Hill?

He currently holds an entry in the Champion Hurdle which seems the obvious route given the horse and the trainer.

On the other hand his prep is anything but ordinary.

The national hunt horse was expected to make his Flat debut on the all weather at Southwell for ITV’s new Friday Night Live at the races on the February 20. Upon the announcement for his intended run the total prize money was increased to £40,000 with the race newly named the “SBK Road To Cheltenham Novice Stakes”.

The class 2, 1m4f Novice race has a maximum field size of 14 and a possible safety reduction to a max field size of 12. With more entries than the allowed runners, the ballot system was brought in which saw Constitution Hill miss out on guaranteed run. He sits at number 16 of the intended runners meaning he needs a minimum of two horses to not be declared, but possibly four horses if the field is reduced to a maximum of twelve runners.

😱 Horses guaranteed a run:

Gambino
Square Necker
Daddy Long Legs
Mr McLoughlan
Nardaran
Secret Squirrel
Star Artist
Tripoli Flyer
John Galt
Masked Mistress
Tide Lines
Summer Appeal

————————————————————

Elimination sequence (in the order… https://t.co/DDF1qEhBXq pic.twitter.com/aYscMbmpw3

— Racing Post (@RacingPost) February 15, 2026

Speaking to the racing post Henderson said it would be “Sod’s Law” if Constitution Hill didn’t get the run, also expressing how crucial this run was and that all their work had gone into this being his prep run before a bid at the Champion Hurdle.

However, with the British Horse Racing Authority putting on such a generous prize pot its no surprise to see this targeted by some of the bigger names on the flat and a host of Henderson’s national hunt rivals. Most notably is the reigning Irish and British trainers champion Willie Mullins who sends Daddy Long Legs over from Ireland.

Secret Squirrel is a current runner who looks likely to be scratched come the declarations, having run over hurdles last weekend in the Grade two Kingwell on his return from a lengthy injury. Despite this Constitution Hill will need at least one more not to be declared, possibly three more if the field size is reduced to 12.

What is still unclear is the reasoning behind this unusual switch to the flat on an all-weather track as preparation for a tilt at the Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle. The obvious answer looks to be it’s impossible for him to fall with their being no obstacles.

Yet this still leaves a huge question mark over the horses jumping ability come March. This seems to be a risk they are willing to take, focussing on giving him a run to ensure he turns up in March with some race fitness.

One possible reason for his absence from a hurdles race before Cheltenham this year is the potential fallout from a possible fall. It is seemingly likely he is on his final chance, one more fall could be deadly for Constitution Hill and if not surely spells the end of his racing career.

The avoidance of a race over hurdles looks to be done to ensure he gets his last chance at the Festival in the Champion Hurdle in mind.

This fear of running him over his obstacles may have possibly been a mistake with the use of hindsight. Saturday’s Kingwell was a weak affair with just four runners. The soft ground made it a much slower run race than what he may face in the Champion Hurdle. His competition would have consisted of Intellotto and Secret Squirrel who are both rated well below Constitution Hill. The 2nd place was a familiar foe in Rubaud who he has beat on multiple occasions and the winner, Alexei, was making his first step into graded company. A weak field and a race on a simple flat track could’ve been a great stepping stone for Constitution Hill to regain some jumping confidence and re-establish himself in this sphere.

A big battle to the line but it's Alexei's BetMGM Kingwell Hurdle!

Last year's race gave us the 1-2 of the Champion Hurdle… pic.twitter.com/4VjVoBLAan

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) February 14, 2026

The possible outcomes from Southwell

Non Runner –

The worst possible outcome for all connections. It would mean making his seasonal reappearance in the Champion Hurdle, which would require an almighty training performance to get him in good enough shape to win a hotly contested Champion Hurdle. Alternatively, without the much wanted prep run a line could be put through this season, but at nine-years-old time isn’t on his side.

Runs well –

A good run is crucial for Constitution Hill and it would take a very impressive run to show he is currently up to the required level. The current market favourite for the Champion Hurdle Brighterdaysahead has a RPR of 162 this season, while the best marker to compare against in the Novice Stakes at Southwell is Tripoli Flyer who last ran to a 146 RPR. On the bare figures alone Constitution Hill would need to beat Fergal O’Brien’s Tripoli Flyer by a comfortable margin to suggest he can match the levels of the Irish trained Brighterdaysahead.

Tripoli Flyer doesn’t have a ballot mark and is an intended runner at this stage https://t.co/g3Cz0QcPSU pic.twitter.com/cUP8Lond8l

— Fergal O'Brien Racing (@FOBRacing) February 15, 2026

Runs badly –

A loss to Daddy Long Legs or Tripoli Flyer in this would have to leave you thinking he no longer has the ability required to regain his Champion Hurdle title. Both rivals are rated well below what would be required to win at the festival, however, excuses can be made with the run only being used as preparation. So while a poor performance makes it almost impossible to see how he can win at the Festival again, it could still result in him lining up come March.