Twelve months ago, Cheltenham Town were sat bottom of the SkyBet League Two table following a 1-1 draw away from home at Gillingham. Fast forward to present day, and The Robins are currently eighth, seven points better off than last season’s tally whilst having played two less games, so why are some corners of the fanbase starting to become disgruntled and is it justifiable?
The Gloucestershire side have made their best start to a league campaign since their title-winning season, six years ago.
However, following back-to-back 2-0 defeats to Accrington Stanley and Salford City respectively, Steve Cotterill’s side have slipped from the automatic promotion places to the outskirts of the playoffs.
@SalfordCityFC on 🔝! #SkyBetLeagueTwo | #EFL https://t.co/XHqCxSzEle
— Sky Bet League Two (@SkyBetLeagueTwo) October 10, 2026
Prior to the clash against Stanley, Cheltenham had found the back of the net in every league game, although that run came to an end in Lancashire on match day nine.
Top goal scorer and influential summer signing Charlie McCann was also brandished a late red card following a second bookable offence which left him sidelined for the following fixture against table-toppers Salford.
Therefore, it was always going to be an uphill battle for The Reds to trouble The Ammies backline and despite a performance full of effort, there was a distinct lack of forward threat despite the vastly experienced Andi Weimann leading the line.
Defeats are part and parcel of football, a two-game losing streak usually wouldn’t be cause for concern, especially when you’re converting two goals a game on average in your opening eight fixtures.
Their underlying data though, points to a significant overachievement in terms of output of results. Data website footystats.org calculates xPts (expected points) based on the xG (expected goals) across the campaign and the table makes grim reading if you’re of a Cheltenham persuasion.
The Robins sit bottom of the table on just six points with one win to their name and nine points worse off than what their league position represents.
So why is this cause for concern? As a fan, you want to see your team winning, Cheltenham are doing that, the reality is they’re eighth not 24th. The issue is, according to stats, Cheltenham are not doing enough in games to warrant these additional points.
In 60% of their league outings, The Robins have recorded less than 10 shots on goal. In 80% of games this season, the opposition have registered more shots. Additionally, in 70% of league matches the opposition have also had the majority of possession.
Therefore, it’s commendable how productive Cheltenham have been within games, showing that they’re still able to grind out results despite having less shots and less of the ball.
However, going back to the earlier mentioned recent run of form, the outcome of results is starting to shift, and the underlying data is remaining the same.
It is worth mentioning that Cotterill is currently juggling somewhat of an availability crisis at the club. McCann has just completed his suspension which will see him return to action. Although, summer signing Shaun McWilliams has missed the last three games through injury, Joe Tomlinson was also ruled out through injury – meanwhile Ben Stevenson will serve a suspension following his straight red card offence on Saturday.
Literally 2 goalkeepers on the bench & 4 outfield players. Honestly some of our fans think the team can turn water into wine. Sick to death of it. Next season is going to be the big onslaught for the automatic promotion places in my opinion. If not the manager has to go. #ctfc
— Ricky ‘Aggro’ (@rvc86) October 10, 2026
Cotterill opted for quality over quantity in the summer transfer window, but will that come back to bite him between now and January as he was only able to name four outfield players on his bench against Salford, with two goalkeepers occupying the dugout.
Squad building this summer was always an issue and is now coming back to bite us and it’s not even November. Poor planning. Any other manager gets questioned
— JT (@joshyt6) October 10, 2026
The 62-year-old utilised the free agent market during the first half of last campaign to great effect bringing in Stevenson, Jonathan Tomkinson and Hakeeb Adelakun, therefore; could this be an avenue which will provide fruitful once again?
A Cheltenham legend, he has without a doubt transformed a club which looked destined for non-league within the space of a year but can he keep providing the good times or do all good things come to an end?
